This is...

inappropriate, and won't help win any undecided voters. The Cs have to explain why they are ready to govern. The vast majority of Canadians realize why the Liberals should be punished. I think they should run ads saying their hidden agenda is:

• accountable government
• parliamentary reform
• responsible spending and tax cuts

Take the whole "hidden agenda" thing and confront it head on.

New IPsos Poll

Cons 33 Libs 30 NDP 17 Bloc 12 (details here via Neale News) In Ontario its Libs 40 Cons 33 NDP 19 And there is some interesting reading with regards to the recent GPC poll...

What media bias?

From AC: 63% of Canadians think the Prime Minister is lying when he says he wasn't involved in the sponsorship scandal... but the headline on the CTV poll is "Cdns. suspicious of a Tory hidden agenda."

Damian's right

It isn't even shocking anymore...bizarro world indeed...

New poll

Can this be right? Micky thinks its not worth too much, being a new company. AC says there is a similar CTV poll coming out.

Libs 27 Cons 25 NDP 11 Bloc 11 Green 8 Undecided 13

Update: Here's the CTV poll:

• Nationally: Libs 30 Cons 28 NDP 18 Green 10
• Ontario: Libs 38 Cons 30 NDP 23
• Quebec: Bloc 55 Libs 16 Greens 12 Cons 9 NDP 8

Let me say what you are thinking - What the heck is going on? What did the Conservative do to lose 5 points nationally and 10 in Ontario? These polls better be off (Greens at 10% nationally? I bet 98% of people can't name the leader; I know I can't).

The good news is that Conservative support is likely to go up and Liberal support to go down during a campaign. Right?

Great quote

The question here isn't "is kemosabe offensive?" or "was this woman's feelings hurt?" or "should the law on the Lone Ranger be clarified?" It's: Why do we have these human rights commissions at all? They're like the Toronto Star editorial board, but with the force of the law behind them. Terrifying. -- Ezra Levant

Taxes

Summed up, the average Canadian family faced a tax bill of $36,782 in 2004 against income of $75,436. The total taxes imposed on the average Canadian family consumed nearly 49 percent of income. In other words, average Canadian families hand over nearly half of their income to Canadian governments. -- the Fraser Institute via the shotgun So we pay more to various levels of government than we do for food, shelter and clothing combined. Nice. And what do we get in return? Healthcare coverage, roads to drive on, an army to protect us (sort of), a government to advocate for us (sort of), police, firefighters, etc, etc. Those are all important functions, but are they worth half of all our incomes?

LIB-NDP deal hurts poor

Paul Wells has all the details.

So what we have here is not just a case of a policy where more rich kids benefit more than poor kids because they are likelier to be in school in the first place. And it’s not just a case that the rich kids get something while the poor kids get nothing. This is a policy where the low-need kids get something and the high-need kids LOSE something.

West is Best

Three western most provinces had the best economic performance in Canada in 2004.

Good line

Andrew Coyne thinks we will hear a lot more of this line: "The prime minister has just cut a $4.5 billion deal to buy votes to deal with allegations of vote buying," he said. "So to deal with Liberal corruption we get an NDP budget. The way that this parliament is supposed to work, I guess, is what the Liberals don't steal the NDP gets to spend." --Stephen Harper

Polls

Has your opinion of the following parties and their leaders improved, stayed the same, or worsened over the last few weeks?

	Improved	Worsened	The Same
Paul Martin (Lib.)	15%	55%	24%
Stephen Harper (Con.)	27%	27%	36%
Jack Layton (NDP)	28%	16%	43%
Giles Duceppe (BQ)*	34%	21%	34%

Environics Toronto Fed Support: Lib 41% (51%) Con 35% (28%) Ndp 21% (15%) ... (via Bourque)

Gomery update

Not too much new, but confirmation of false invoices, etc, asked for by Chuck "Mr. Fall Guy" Guite. Follow it all at andrewcoyne.com

Tentative LIB-NDP deal reached

"[U]nder the proposed agreement, small and medium-sized businesses will keep their tax cuts but tax rates for large corporations would remain...details were still being discussed...'Families will pay less for their kids' education. Workers will get better training. We'll reduce pollution. Build affordable housing.'" But I still don't get why Martin would try this when he knows they wont have the numbers to pass the budget. Maybe he figures dividing the opposition is worth it, and he's willing to move more to the left to make that happen. And I still think it's a net loss for Layton, especially when he didn't win much of a concession.

Update: The deal would see the Liberals spend $4.6 billion in new investment over two years for the environment, affordable housing, foreign aid, and post-secondary education and training - the same amount of money Martin had previously committed to corporate tax cuts, starting in 2008. More details

Oh, and the Tories say they can't support an "NDP budget"

The Charter 23 years later

Sunday shopping. Unregulated abortion. Voting rights for convicts. Restrictive evidentiary rules. Legal protection for non-citizens. Redefinition of pornography. Judicial salaries set by unelected commissions. No extradition for criminals facing capital punishment in other countries. Import exemptions for S&M products. Expanded defence for child pornography. Lower age of consent for sodomy. Criminalization of "hate speech." Separate schools for francophones. Equality rights for homosexuals. Protection for gays in the military and police. Spousal benefits for same-sex couples. Adoption rights for homosexuals. Legalization of same-sex marriage.

That's just a partial list of the most controversial changes that occurred in Canadian law after the Charter of Rights and Freedoms came into effect in 1982. They all arose from judicial interpretations of the charter's guarantees of "fundamental freedoms" for all, and specific rights for women, accused criminals and minorities. -- Western Standard

The flat-tax revolution

The more complicated a country's tax system becomes, the easier it is for governments to make it more complicated still, in an accelerating process of proliferating insanity—until, perhaps, a limit of madness is reached and a spasm of radical simplification is demanded... But is there no realistic alternative to tax codes which, as they discharge that sad but necessary function, squander resources on an epic scale and grind the spirit of the helpless taxpayer as well? -- The Economist 

 

Math

Chuck Cadman says he will now vote to defeat the government - I guess he got an earful from his constituents . Oh, and he is undergoing cancer treatment, so he might not be able to even make a vote, depending on when it is. (update: I heard on the radio he is waffling now...) Ok, now - everyone together: Lib+NDP+Ind = 151 (131+19+1); Con+Bloc+Ind = 155 (99+54+2). 151<155>

Oh, and Pierre Pettegrew has seen the writing on the wall and is leaving to head the OAS, according to reports.

More polls

Lots of polling going on these days - gee, I wonder why?

• 60% of Canadians don't want election
• 50% believe Martin's speech was a "cynical attempt to hang on to power" (nice poll question btw)
• 55% believe scandal is worsening

"What it shows is that going on national television didn't work. If this was designed to re-energize the prime minister and to get him back on the right track, it hasn't paid off." -Ipsos Reed

And there is a new Leger Marketing poll out:

• 52% of Canadians are in favour of a public private mix to healthcare. 42% are opposed.
• Quebec 65% support, BC 56%, the Prairies 51%.
• Ontario 46%, Alberta 45% (!!), Atlantic regoin 37%
• By political affiliateion: Libs 49%, Cons 67%, NDPers 35%, Bloc 64%

Paul Wells says what I was thinking

Like everything else in the second Goodale budget, the corporate tax cuts are rolled in over several years — there are almost none immediately, then more later, so the $4.6 billion is radically back-loaded. But for argument's sake, it averages to $922 million per year over five years...

My minimal point is that we have these national debates with incredibly high political stakes and you so rarely see anyone pause to explain the relative scale of things

What's more, since the cuts don't actually come in to effect for a couple of years, there is no point in even debating them, because no one expects the Liberals to survive the next election.

This budget is dead, and especially the years beyond this one. They are deader than dead.

Oh, but Martin has to decide today if we want to play ball. He's sent signals both ways. (insert snide comment here)

New Poll

Looks like the conservative spike might be coming down, although with the margin of error it doesn't mean much. And could the NDP have gone up from 15 to 21? Yikes.

CON 32 LIB 27 NDP 21 Bloc 15

As usual, follow all the latest developments at andrewcoyne.com

Waste? What Waste?

Figures released in Ottawa show that less than $1 million has been paid to victims of residential school abuse under what's been called a fast-track program – yet as much as $34 million has been spent administering the program. -- via CBC Wow - that's even worse than I though possible in a democracy. An outrage. As if we needed another one.

House Split

Carolyn Parrish won't vote to bring down the government, even thouigh she'd like to Martin the middle finger (her words). Chuck Cadman has also indicaated he wont vote against the government until at least middle of May, so I think the door is open there once the testimony at the inquiry wraps up. And David Kilgour has said he will cote to defeat the government when there is a vote. Two conservatives are quite ill, so with the Bloc they have 151 votes. The Lib-NDP have 150. If the independants split as above, then we have 152-152 and the Speaker breaks the tie in favour of the government. Two caveats:

• Once we get in to May, and Gomery is done, it's far more likely the vote goes against the government
• The NDP are only willing to vote with the Libs on the budget, so once it is passed, they may still vote to defeat them on a non confidence motion.

Steyn on Bolton

The rap against John Bolton is that he gets annoyed with do-nothing bureaucrats...Sinking Bolton means handing a huge psychological victory to a federal bureaucracy that so spectacularly failed America on 9/11 and to a U.N. bureaucracy eager for any distraction from its own mess. The Democrats' interest in derailing Bush foreign policy is crude but understandable. But why would even the wimpiest Republican ''moderate'' want to help them out? Who needs capuchin monkeys in the Senate when GOP squishes are so eager to tap-dance for Democrat organ grinders? - more

Other people's money

...is easy to spend: $500,000 a month for an empty building, paid to a company run by a Chretien appointed senator

Paying for healthcare

Seems lots of Canadians are willing to go south and pay...

Latest poll

More details (pdf) seat projection

Stupid Legislature Tricks Vol.2

Unbelievable - Dog owners in Turin will be fined up to 500 euros ($650) if they don’t walk their pets at least three times a day, under a new law from the city’s council...Dogs may be led for walks by people on bicycles, the rules say, "but not in a way that would tire the animal too much."

Elections sharpen the mind

I haven't posted anything on US politics lately, partly because of what's going on here at home, but also because the urgency isn't there. Elections sharpen the mind - and there isn't a serious one in the US for another 18 months or so. Plus it's so depressing to see the constant fighting and paralysis in the Senate: Bolton's too angry to be confirmed, the Rs might bust the fillibuster rule for judges, Social security reform is languishing, etc...

But anyway, my attention is focused here at home because things are so interesting. Here's what I think about an election:

• The Liberals do not want one, for a long time. They really don't.
• Martin has basically kicked off a 10 month campaign with his promise to hold one after Gomery. That means an election in January - February. Boo-urns.
• The election will be this Spring, (see here) The campaign will not be longer than 36 days (the minimum) because the Liberals don't have a lot of money, and fundraising now will be REALLY tough. Who would want that job?
• Liberal support will go down as Conservative and NDP support goes up - during the beginning of the campaign. Liberal support always does. Hard to see Bloc support going up or down.
• Toward the end, Conservative support will dip slightly (again) as the Liberals bring out the serious fear stuff (again).
• The media will rally to the Liberals as soon as the election kicks off, or at least some of it will (The CBC, Toronto Star, and the Globe and Mail...)
• The Conservatives will win a large minority government, possibly even a small majority, with one or two seats in Quebec.

Lib-NDP coalition in the works, maybe

Martin and Layton are going to meet to discuss the options. The NDP want the liberals to reduce the corporate tax cuts. The article (finally) points out that the NDP can't really ensure the Libs servival, except in extraordinary circumstances:

The NDP, however, doesn't have enough members to guarantee the government's survival. The numbers right now are this:

• Liberals: 131 plus the Speaker
• Conservatives: 99
• Bloc Quebecois: 54
• NDP: 19
• Independents: 3
• Vacant: 1

The Bloc and the Conservatives have a combined 153 votes, although two Tory MPs are reportedly too ill to travel to Ottawa. The two parties' working total might be 151. The Liberals and NDP would have a combined 150 votes.

Of the three Independents, B.C.'s Chuck Cadman has said he would not support a non-confidence motion, ex-Liberal and Alberta MP David Kilgour has said he would, and ex-Liberal and Ontario MP Carolyn Parrish has said nothing so far -- although she did vote for the budget.

That would put the potential total at 152-150 for a non-confidence motion. If Parrish and Cadman supported the government and Speaker Peter Milliken voted to break the tie, the Liberals could survive.

One rumour on Parliament Hill was that some Trudeau-era Liberals were urging Martin to appoint some Tory MPs to the Senate to further lessen the chance of a successful non-confidence vote.

That would be bold - as Coyne points out "It's so stupid it's brilliant!"

And there is this great quote from Harper:

"Mr. Martin wants to have an election without Gomery. Now he wants Gomery without an election. What he's always trying to avoid is having the two together."

Adscam ad infinitim

Spelling is clearly not my forte. No kidding, eh?

Andrew Coyne has an excellent round up of what's happening, including Martin's plea, reaction, and the stories that have been bumped from the headlines (The Boulays testimony, the $75,000 bump that Martin likely engineered for a friendly firm, and the interviews with Benoit Corbeil, who says Martin was involved).

There is lots more to come out at adscam, and the campaign ads are going to be devastating. The Liberal support will plummet to the low 20s in the first week of the campaign - guaranteed.

Darn bloggers

Potent Pew is way ahead of me on the latest polls, so take a look. Looks like good analysis too.

The poll is here - showing that the Conservatives are around 40% in Ontario and within striking distance of a majority government.

News Roundup

Lots of stuff in the wonderfully bizarre world of Canadian Politics

• Opposition seeks probe into naming of Quebec judges
• Ugly election campaign just kicked off
• Disgraced ex-Liberal claims he met with Chretien, Martin - and says he will name names and give details when he testifies at Gomery
• As they say on TV, 'Paul, you're fired'
• And it was A Day Like no Other in Ottawa - a great article with this interesting tidbit:

Another Liberal MP called to say he was totally miffed by the exercise: "PMO spokesman Paul Martin did a good job for Scott Reid tonight," ... Reporters were cranky and some Liberal MPs were so worried that one of their colleagues described them as looking as if they were in the "fetal position."

In other news

• Bedside Bibles banned from N.B. hospital
• Woman in Wendy's Finger Case Arrested

The big night

After the speeches tonight (Martin's here and Harper's here), it's clear that we're going to have an election very soon. Paul Wells disagrees, and thinks that Martin has at least won on that point.

But here's why he's wrong. The Bloc want an election, and so do Quebekers. The Conservatives want an election because they think they can win, possibly big. Plus they want to defeat the same sex marriage bill. The NDP are sort of willing to work with the Liberals to keep them afloat (they don't really even have the numbers), but only on conditions the Liberals will not accept.

And as the allegations grow and get worse for Martin, there will be too much pressure on the Opposition to pull the plug. June election, for sure.

Oh, and who actually wants an election in late December anyway?

Finally

Blogger has been down for the last while, including when all the speeches were on. Yeesh. Now it's back... Update: I meant to put something in here about what actually happened. Martin apologized for the scandal, and said he would call an election 30 days after Gomery reports (i.e. December). Harper said this is a Liberal scandal, Martin was being pathetic, and the Liberals couldn't be trusted to clean it up. No idea what Duceppe said - I tuned out. Layton talked about the environment in his first or second sentance, and then offered to keep the Martin government in power in exchange for smaller tax cuts, etc.

Adscan update

Along with the live televised address tonight, there is lots to talk about.

• Opposition parties are also going to get air time
• There's the poll below, showing conservatives up by about 10 points
• The Conservative nonconfience motion (also below) introduced in public accounts
• Paul Wells tees off on Martin's lack of trying to lead, and also covers the news from Benoît Corbeil, former executive director of Federal Liberals' Quebec wing: Yes he did ask for and receive money from GroupAction (less than $50,000) to distribute to Liberal organizers in 2000.
• Andrew Coyne notes that everyone new about the Liberal methods in Quebec, include that lawyers worked for free on campaigns, only to be appointed as judges later. Same went for other professions, including (surprise) ad companies. Corbeil will testify at the Gomry commission soon, and promises to name names...

New Poll

Cons 35 Libs 28 NDP 18 And Libs still lead in Ontario. Basically solidifies what we already knew. More poll details here.

Martin to address nation tomorrow

More here. Looks desparate to me. And no cameras apparently - it's closed to the media (Pool camera only). The other parties are going to be given time by CBC to respond. Funny line:

Susan Bonner points out that the address will be going up against Extreme Makeover and Survivor.

And there is tons of great stuff at warrenkinsella.com. Tons. Among other things, he thinks the conservatives will win a majority in the next election, and he torches Goodale, Dingwall, Howard Hampton, and others. This is such a fun time to blog about politics. Finally, the Cs introduced a notice of motion that could lead to a non confidence vote in early May. Anothe great line:

"Holding a national crisis type address tomorrow? This isn't a national crisis. This is a Paul Martin Liberal party crisis he's dealing with." -- Peter MacKay

Great site

www.anticorruption.ca

Exactly

It's a curious inversion of priorities to demand "control" over peripheral leisure activities but to contract out the big life-changing stuff to the government. Free citizens of advanced western democracies are increasingly the world's wrinkliest teenagers: the state makes the grown-up decisions and we spend our pocket money on our record collection. Hillaire Belloc, incidentally, foresaw this very clearly in his book The Servile State in 1912 - before teenagers or record collections had been invented.

-- Mark Steyn

Adscam update

It's just easier to link to Andrew Coyne for all the latest developments, including Boulay's memory problems ("it's possible, but I don't have a recollection"), the Warren Kinsella vs. Martin angle (who made that threatening phone call?), and this great quote from Harper:

"When each group of Liberals calls the other group of Liberals crooks and liars, does it really matter which one we believe?" >

Other good stuff out there:

• Are the media shilling for Martin? (only 18% of Canadians believe Paul Martin is not at least partly to blame for AdScam; see this blog for more)
• Quebec will separate and Gagliano says PM's to blame (yeah but consider the source)
• Election battle will be ugly and personal
• There is an all out political war going on in Ottawa between the Liberals trying to stay in power and the opposition who smell blood.
• Likely election date: June 27 - but not for sure
• And finally - the Liberals have committed suicide

Is it just me, or is there a lot of liberal infighting and blame throwing these days? It'll be great when 'da boss' weighs in...

Nice Headline

Harper slammed on private health care - except it's the Liberal Health minister, Ujjal Dosanjh. And they are just trying to change the subject, using what they believe to be their main weapon - healthcare. So the headline should be:

Libs attack Harper over healthcare

or

Libs try to change subject

or

Libs trying same tactics as last time

As the Adscam turns

There's way more detail over at andrewcoyne.com, but here's the breakdown:

• Chuck Cadman wont vote to defeat the government until Gomry reports, meaning the NDP might actually be able to keep the government in power - and if everyone shows up.
• Warren Kinsella says Martin was involved in awarding contracts, and that someone tried to intimidate him from testifying
• The Liberals are restricting the opposition days available, so that they can't move a non confidence motion
• Martin wrote a very friendly letter to the guy he never had lunch with and doesn't really know beyond a causual hello

Update: David Frum comments on the whole mess for the NYTimes.

Vulnerable ministers

Interesting list of vulnerable cabinet ministers during the coming election, from PoliticsWatch.ca:

• Ethel Blondin-Andrew, junior minister from the north, won by 53 votes in 2004 - it would likely be a pick up for the NDP
• Liza Frulla, from Quebec, won by 72 votes in 2004; plus her chief of staff is directly implicated in Adscam
• Pierre Pettigrew, also from Quebec and Foreign Affiars minister, won by 468 votes in 2004
• Anne McLellan, lone Alberta Liberal, deputy prime minister, etc, won by less than 1000 in 2004

NDP to prop up Liberals?

If the Liberals will reduce corporate tax cuts and give more money to Ontario, the NDP say they will keep the Liberals in power. This is wrong on so many levels; it's sheer political opportunism, it's propping up a government that deserves to be punished for years of corruption, it's annoying, and I don't think it could even work.

Right now, the standings are: Liberals 132, Conservatives 99, Bloc 54, NDP 19, Ind 3, Vacant 1

So a majority is 154. Libs + NDP = 151. Since the independent members are Parrish (disgraced and booted out former Liberal), Cadman (Conservative who won as an independent), and Kilgour (former Conservative and recently former Liberal), there's real no chance that all three would vote with the government. We can assume that the Conservatives and the Bloc could defeat the government if everyone shows up.

So how come this is news again? Didn't we cover the "NDP aren't power brokers" story after the last election?

Divert, in more ways than one

This Tuesday, the Liberals will release the long awaited international policy review, at least in part to divert attention and headlines. Paul Wells is funny:

Congratulations, anyway. What a long, strange trip it's been. Now your only fear is that you'll have to start over in September, writing a foreign-policy statement for your new boss, Minister Day.

Over at andrewcoyne.com, there is some interesting stuff about the Liberals diverting funds to riding assosiations via the "electoral reform' of 2003. There is also this projection:

Cons 128 Libs 78 NDP 36 Bloc 66

which is pretty close to Micky's last week:

C 126 L 74 N 43 B 64

And finally, Andrew links to this article, which indicates that things could get a lot worse yet, as forensic accountants piece together the money trail.

Update: the Feds have made 4 big announcements already...

Paul Wells on Adscam

He's been largely absent from his blog as he covers the Gomry inquiry, but this is an interesting take on the Liberal's attempt to deal with the whole mess.

We see, for instance, that it was Don Boudria who called on Sheila Fraser to do her big audit — and Boudria who called in the RCMP. (Oddly, the former minister has not been called before the Gomery commission to explain his role in these events.) And we see it was Ralph Goodale who did most of the heavy lifting in a massive administrative reorganization.

In fact, Goodale sounded pretty impressed with the work the Grits had already done in a speech he delivered two weeks before Paul Martin became prime minister. But Ralph can't talk about that any more, because the anonymous geniuses in the Martin entourage have a better idea. ("This is the prime minister who cancelled the sponsorship program...")

polls, polls, and more polls

• Canadians trust Harper more than Martin
• Cons 36 Libs 27
• Cons 34 Libs 30

Kilgour won't run again

Realizing he was screwed, ahem, had no real options anyway, Edmonton MP David Kilgour won't be running in the next election. Although if Martin resigned, he'd consider going back to the Liberals. And I'm sure if the Conservatives let him he'd run for them, but there's no real chance of that, is there?

Free Speech?

The Calgary police chief has managed to shut down a website run by "a civilian police employee"t hat was disparaging of him and his senior managers. Is that even legal? There is a "sweeping" gag order, so it's tough to know the details, but whoever was running the site should have put it up on a server outside of Calgary (it was running out of his/her basement) - and I guess out of the country. Like this one!

CBC Poll

CBC released a poll last night that has the Conservatives slightly ahead nationally, but slighlty behind in Ontario, which is strange to me. Do they just love Liberal scandals, or what? Micky averaged out the poll numbers from the last week and his projection looks like this:

C 126 L 74 N 43 B 64

But a Conservative minority govenment makes me think about Joe Clark in 1979, and how eager all three parties will be to defeat any bill related to taxes, marriage, the military, the environment, and who know what else. Maybe they can find some consensus on a few things, but that just means the Conservatives will become Liberal-lite. Still, maybe that's what needs to happen.

Stupid legislature tricks vol. 1

I think I'll start a new series on stupid laws that get proposed or passed. Let's start with a law that makes it a "human rights violation to charge women more than men for haircuts, toiletries" etc. A human rights violation? Maybe the whole free market system is a series of "human rights violations"! Don't those turkeys in Ontario have more pressing things to do than mess with the economy? If women want to pay more for stuff, that's their perogative. Plus, who's going to determine what a similar service is? The market sets prices, and the government should stay out of it.

Everything but tax cuts

You'd think a province with a slightly conservative government, no debt, enourmous revenues, and a projected 1.5B surplus would cut taxes, but you'd be wrong. Alberta is ramping up spending in a major way, but taxpayers are getting the shaft.

Pat O'Brien is staying a Liberal

According to his press conference, he feels its the best place to fight for marriage and support his collegues who also voted against the government. Disappointing.

Kyoto 'Plan'

Attempting to create headlines about anything other than corruption and embezzlement, the Liberals announced their long-awaited Kyoto plan. Seems like everyone thinks its too vague (I'm shocked, shocked!), and in a nod to political reality, CNN reported it this way:

Canada plans to cut greenhouse gases; Conservatives say they'll scrap $10 billion plan if they win office

The plan is madness according to the NPs Terence Corcoran:

Under Kyoto, Canada has to cut emissions by at least 270,000,000 tonnes by 2010, about 35% of current emissions. The Kyoto plan won't even come close, if only because it implies shutting down a third of the economy. That's too crazy to think about, but still the objective is to set up a "carbon constrained" economy by imposing regulations that artificially create carbon constraints.

The science is suspect, and this plan is too.

Martin can't answer simple question

Martin was asked in QP to clarify his relationship with an ad executive implicated in the sponsorship scandal, Claude Boulay, and he refused to respond. The actual quote was something like: "Will the Prime Minister answer the question?" Martin - "Healthcare. Healthcare Mr. Speaker..."

Bad timing or stupidity?

Look - I agree that there should be less government and more private influence, but this is just frustrating:

Preston Manning and Mike Harris tossed an electoral hand grenade into the lap of Conservative Leader Stephen Harper on Wednesday, issuing a joint report calling for the federal government to get out of Medicare and let the provinces experiment with private health services.

The last thing we need is more phony and disingenuous Medicare debate. The focus needs to be on the sponsorship scandal, Liberal corruption, and the need for change. I suppose there is the possibility the Conservatives could use the issue to their advantage, but I dare not hope...

David Frum on Adscam

Great backgrounder here, and current analysis here: The Four Stages of Adscam.

Misappropriation of funds was not an abuse of the program. Misappropriation of funds was the point of the program.

Kilgour quits Liberals

For now he will sit as an independent, but yesterday he voted with the conservatives on the marriage amendment and the air india vote. He says his decision is a long time coming.

Another poll

Nationally: Conservatives 32 - Liberals 31; QC: Bloc 52 - Libs 20; Ont: Libs 40 - Cons 35. Here's my question: Are Canadian's crazy? Would Ontario vote Liberal AGAIN? What's wrong with this wacky country of ours? And what do the conservatives have to do to pick up enough support to form government?

More Adscam

Paul Martin has written a letter to Liberals, and let me tell you, denial is not just a river in Egypt.

If even part of it turns out to be true, it is abhorrent to us all...Public life is the highest service to which one can commit and the Liberal party must embody the highest of ethical standards. This is my determined view, just as I know it is yours...To those who have watched recent testimony, I say simply this is not the way politics should be done. Most certainly, this is not the way we do politics in the Liberal party.

Meanwhile back in the real world, Sponsorship inquiry hears evidence of secret cash donation to Grits

Marriage ammendment falls 132-164

The vote on the conservative amendment to the same sex bill was defeated in the House of Commons. All but 3 Conservatives voted for the ammendment, and quite a number of Liberals. But the majority of liberals, the Bloc and the NDP all voted against it. But the bill still needs to come for a final vote later in May. We'll see the government defeated first, I think. In other news, 4 liberals voted for the opposition motion on calling an inquiry on the Air India bombing. It passed 172-124. Look for those 4 to cross the floor very shortly.

RCMP angle

What is brewing with the RCMP? It's well documented that they received sponsoship money, and they have close ties to the program itself. And now the conservatives are saying they don't trust an RCMP probe in to criminal wrongdoing, because of how close the RCMP has traditionally been with the PMO's office. They'd rather see the Ontario or Quebec provincial police look in to the matter. Makes sense to me.

Ipsos poll

Liberals: 27%, -10 (37) Conservatives: 30%, +4 (26) NDP: 19%, +2 (17) Bloc: 12%, +2 (10) Greens: 7%, 0 (7) There is lots more information in the article, including regional breakdown. But does this poll make any sense? Compared to the Ekos poll, I don't think so. Copmparing Conservative vs. Liberal numbers, there is a big difference.

	Ekos	Ispsos
Nationally	36-25	30-27
Ontario	40-33	32-34
AB	70-10	54-21

I think we need to take these numbers with a big grain of salt, and let things settle out a little bit. Each poll seems to measure conservative support differently - the only thing we can know for sure is that the Liberal support is collapsing. And if anyone believes the Grits are at 21 in Alberta I have a bridge to sell them.

So expect an election in June, unless the Tories have the guts to wait for the fall. I'm betting on the spring.

Update: for what it's worth, my stats wizard buddy in Calgary has averaged both polls, and averaged the national and regional numbers to come up with the following seat distribution:

C 124 L 75 N 43 B 65

Great shirt

It's a matter of when, not if

Everyone is expecting an election in the near future, and the conservatives are now saying they will wait at least a month. Testimony at the inquiry ends May 6.

"Deeply divided" in to clear majority

The CBC never ceases to crack me up - and they aren't even trying... Canadians are "deeply divided" on marriage: 52% don't approve of the Liberals plan to change the law and redefine marriage, while "nearly as many people" 44% (what are they smoking, -ed) do like the bill. So an 8 point win, with a clear majority, show we are split right down the middle in this country. If this were an election, it would be a "convincing victory" or some such. If it were the other way around, you can bet the CBC headline would be "Clear majority support same sex marriage". Way to go CBC - fair and balanced as always.

This poll makes sense

Nationally: Cons 36 Libs 25 NDP 20 Bloc 12.6 Greens 5 Ontario: Cons 40 Libs 33 QC: Libs running third! behind the Cons and 35 points behind the bloc The article also suggested an election wouldn't happen until after the BC election on May 17 and the Queen's visit in late May. That's also when testimony at the sponsorship inquiry ends.

For the Liberals, 25 per cent nationally represents a significant drop — 15 percentage points lower than they received in EKOS' last poll in February and 11 percentage points lower than the popular vote they gained in last June's federal election. For the Tories, it's a 10-point climb since the February poll and seven percentage points higher than the 2004 popular vote nationwide.

So we can expect: a) things to get worse for the Libs as more testimony is revealed b) an election in late June Update: Scott Brison thinks it was all worth it. They fought the good fight, and there were a few "war profiteers" who took advantage of the poor, defenceless Liberals. So Mr. Credibility has completely missed the point, which is Liberals enriching other Liberals enriching the party.

This is just a great site for Canadian news

NealeNews.com

Opportunist or strong moral character? You decide

Liberal Edmonton MP David Kilgour is thinking of switching to the conservatives. Hmmmm...which way is the wind blowing again?

Kilgour, who was once a Tory but was bounced from the party in 1990 for opposing the GST, won his seat for the Liberals in the last federal election by a slim 134 votes. He speculated that if he runs again as a Liberal, he'd be finished.

"If you draw up a thing to make people want to vomit, this is it," Kilgour said about details emerging from the inquiry. "I have no desire for people to throw me out on my ear."

Kilgour has also vowed to vote against the Liberals' position in favour of same-sex marriage, and has been critical of the government for its handling of the mad-cow crisis.

Update: At least 4 more Liberals consider jumping ship to the Conservatives

I wonder if you get a refund

Warren Kinsella (of Kicking Ass in Canadian Politics fame) has decided to keep quiet about adscam, other than saying that a "yes" vote is more likely now, and that it's way worse than he expected. Since he has been an unapologetic Chretien supporter, and gives himself credit for 'da little guy's' success, and since at least part of that success seems the result of illegal payoffs and widespread corruption in Quebec, will there be refunds? I'm also looking forward to the sequel: "Looking like a jackass in Canadian Politics".

Marriage rally in Ottawa

15,000 people showed up, but there hasn't been much coverage. No real surprise here, but if this had been a rally for gay marriage, and 1000 people had been there, I bet it would have been on CBC.

65% solution

This sounds like a great, and obvious idea: Spend 65% of education budgets in the classroom. Why wouldn't your do that? Will it make a difference in the U.S. system?

Pre-adscam news poll

Ok, so that's not a great title. But this poll isn't that helpful either, because it was done right before the big news broke.

Nationally Lib 34 Con 30 NDP 15

Ontario Lib 38 Con 34

More adscam

The best coverage I've found so far is on Nealenews.com, the site that originally linked to CQ and the forbidden testimony. This is definately a huge scandal, and it's only going to get bigger as we here more testimony. I agree with a local radio commentator here who said yesterday that the publication ban probably increased coverage and interest outside Quebec, which is a good thing for the country I think. It looks like the bottom line is: Over $1 Million in kickbacks to the Liberal Party. They were actively engaged in recycling public money through their friends back to themselves, and enriching those friends in the process. We do have to wait for the report I think, so that all the facts are out there, but then we need an election to let the people decide. UPDATE: Here's a timeline for the whole thing

AdScam ban lifted

It's about time the story was published in Canada. The commoms "erupted" right away.

Brault claimed in his six days of testimony that he systematically kicked back huge amounts of taxpayer money to the federal Liberal party, a deception he claims involved senior Liberal organizers and people close to former prime minister Jean Chretien.

His testimony alleged secret meetings, phoney paper trails, unmarked envelopes stuffed with cash and bogus billings. Other details from his testimony:

• He said there were phoney employees on the payroll at the ad firm Groupaction.
• Brault said there was $1 million in kickbacks to the Liberal Party of Canada.
• His reward, he claims, was $172 million in government business for his firm.

It was always the same story, he told the commission: The Liberal Party needed money. If you wanted the business, you had to pay.

Liberal Friendly Headlines

It's amazing to me that the major headline involving the sponsorship scandal today in the Canwest papers is "Martin turn tables, attacks opposition". Editors in this country must just be dying to quell the press that the Liberals are deservedly getting lately, but considering the actual exchange in the House of Commons, it's just bizzare. Martin's feable responses got crushed by both Harper and Duceppe, and yet he get's the headline?

"As the Bloc leader has designs on the leadership of the Parti Quebecois, does he intend to ask for an inquiry into the $100,000 received by the Parti Quebecois from Groupaction?" Martin asked during an especially raucous question period. "If the prime minister is so eager to ask questions, he'll have that chance soon when he finds himself in the opposition...So Ali Baba (and his 40 thieves) can keep quiet over there," Duceppe said, his face turning bright red. ..."So I guess the Keystone Krooks stole the money and gave it to the wrong people," Harper said...[and then he] challenged Martin to tell taxpayers, "that not one red cent of their money went to the separatist cause in Quebec in the name of national unity." Martin instead castigated Harper over Conservative ties to Quebec nationalists and suggested the Conservatives and Bloc are working against the interests of Canada. "I am delighted [do you notice that Martin uses that word a lot? - ed] that after so many months of an attempted co-habitation, that finally, the leader of the Opposition recognizes the threat of the separatist cause and the problem that he has working hand-in-hand with them," Martin said to cheers from Liberal benches.

Harper could scarcely believe the prime minister's logic. "Is this the best defence the Liberal party has to offer - that the separatists are just as big crooks as the Liberals?"

Iran

We should probably feel more outrage over what happened to Zahra Kazemi, and over how the government handled the situation. Today there was news that the Ag department was going to go ahead with a conference called "Doing Business with Iran", but because of public and media pressure, the government is withdrawing from co-sponsoring and participating. But how is it that or Foreign Minister has not been forced to resign? When asked about a little step like withdrawing our ambassador, Pettigrew said no.

"We have, in the past, withdrawn the ambassador, and that has led to nowhere. We need to articulate our case in Iran at the highest level and very strongly." Mr. McTeague said Wednesday that he is encouraged by the support of French President Jacques Chirac. Mr. Chirac has also called on Iranian authorities to have Ms. Kazemi's body undergo an independent forensic analysis, Mr. McTeague said. "Now that we've enlisted the support of the French government, which has very good contacts with the Iranian government, we believe this is the right position to take," he said.

So we'll do nothing, but at least we have French support. Yup, that sounds about right on all levels.

Canadian Passports

This is outstanding timing. On the day the Auditor General reports to Parliament that out passport system needs some serious work, the US announces that all Canadian visitors to the US will need a passport by the end of 2006 (but no fingerprinting!).

More adscam

The Toronto Sun is reporting that both the Liberals and the Parti Quebecois (not the Bloc as I wrote earlier - thanks Ian) received kickbacks from sponsorship money in Quebec:

The exec said the president of Groupaction, Jean Brault, made no secret around the company about where the kickback cash was going and for what. "He spoke to me about it ... having to pay money back to the Liberal Party" in return for contracts... But another former Groupaction executive, Alain Renaud, said that while the firm was getting millions of dollars in federal sponsorship money, it was secretly cutting cheques to the separatist Parti Quebecois.

That should change the tone of the debate a little, and probably make the Bloc a little less eager to pursue the whole story. And these facts didn't come out of the Gomery inquiry, so they can be published and discussed in the House of Commons. Gee, I wonder if it will come up?

BC Election

It appears the NDP are struggling to run a decent campaign, and that the Liberals have the momentum and a clear lead in the polls. It doesn't help that the NDP leader has endorsed the teacher unions platform and decided to release the "sensitive" parts of their platform after the election. Classy.

Pope John Paul II

I haven't written much of anything on the passing of this great man, partly because I don't know what to say, and partly because what I do have to say doesn't add much to the numerous columns all over the net. But these two columns capture some of my admiration and respect:

• The Pope and the Fall of Communism
• The Power of Faith

Adscam testimony

Ian at Marturia.net is braver than I am (I tremble in fear of the nanny-state crushing my already diminished legal rights here in Trudeaupia), so you can find all the details of the secret (oohh-aahh) testimony adscam here. Basically the Liberal party in Quebec is full of corruption and cronyism, and thought they had a win-win-win situation: fight separatism, give contracts to their friends, and recycle public money back in to their own party. And he's absolutely right - why can journalists, politicians, and anyone who wanders in the courtroom, have access to the testimony, but not the rest of us? It's idiotic and demeaning. Plus, the jury pool will likely come from Quebekers, so can't we just ban the coverage there? :) It's important to note the first real impact of the blogosphere on Canada, and to realize we are watching history in the making. The internet changes everything. Didn't you know?

Anyone but Hillary! 2008

I think I'll be checking this site out periodically:

Because there are only three and a half years left.

Healthcare in Canada

Be still my beating heart - doctors have decided on "ambitious" benchmarks for waiting lists. Ooooh. But this isn't news, considering they still have to "fine tune" the report, convince governments to adopt it, and even then, ""We do not envisage the benchmarks being absolute and rigid," she said, noting there may be individual cases where treatment simply cannot be provided in time." So status quo then! But in Quebec, Canada's socialist heartland, privatization abounds.

Overregulation

I think we can all agree that the CRTC is an unnecessary and innovation killing government oversight body. If it's not ruling against Fox News (oooohhh scary Fox), or forcing us to listen to Tom Cochrane AGAIN (because of 'Canadian content' rules on the radio), it's trying to control what magazines we have access too (). And as is the case with all good government organizations, it is unable to make decisions in a timely fashion. Bell has just announced that it will start offering Voice of IP to customers in Quebec, even though the CRTC hasn't decided if VOIP qualifies as telephone (must regulate!) or an Internet application (not regulated - yay!). Stay tuned...

Snap election?

The media is abuzz with the possibility that the Bloc will topple the minority Liberal government over explosive testimony recently given at the Gomery inquiry. The testimony is sealed, but since MPs have legal protection with respect to anything they say in the house of commons, they could bring up the allegations and move a non confidence motion. If the conservatives supported it, there would have to be an election. Is the country ready? Do we want an election? I suppose that depends on how serious this testimony is. If it turns out that Martin was involved in the sponsorship scandal, or that other high profile ministers were, then the Bloc has every reason to pull the trigger and win big in Quebec. But the conservatives need to feel that it will help them in Ontario and the East. If they do, look for them to force the election. Stay tuned...

No Suprise in Zimbabwe

Mugabe's party won 55 seats in the parliamentary elections, compared to 34 won by the opposition. Observers say there were lots of irregularities, as usual, including up to 25% of people being turned away, as well as intimidation and spontaneous vote finding. I guess the next thing to look forward to is the passing of the aging dictator. Hopefully then real change can occur.

Stuffy Berger pleads guilty

Looks like former top Clinton national security aide and Kerry for President advisor Sandy "I inadvertedly stuffed them in my socks" Berger is going to plead guilty to taking classified documents from the National Archives and destroying some of them. The plea calls for a $10,000 fine, revoked security clearance for 3 years, but no jail. What a mess the Kerry campaign was.