Elections sharpen the mind

I haven't posted anything on US politics lately, partly because of what's going on here at home, but also because the urgency isn't there. Elections sharpen the mind - and there isn't a serious one in the US for another 18 months or so. Plus it's so depressing to see the constant fighting and paralysis in the Senate: Bolton's too angry to be confirmed, the Rs might bust the fillibuster rule for judges, Social security reform is languishing, etc...

But anyway, my attention is focused here at home because things are so interesting. Here's what I think about an election:

• The Liberals do not want one, for a long time. They really don't.
• Martin has basically kicked off a 10 month campaign with his promise to hold one after Gomery. That means an election in January - February. Boo-urns.
• The election will be this Spring, (see here) The campaign will not be longer than 36 days (the minimum) because the Liberals don't have a lot of money, and fundraising now will be REALLY tough. Who would want that job?
• Liberal support will go down as Conservative and NDP support goes up - during the beginning of the campaign. Liberal support always does. Hard to see Bloc support going up or down.
• Toward the end, Conservative support will dip slightly (again) as the Liberals bring out the serious fear stuff (again).
• The media will rally to the Liberals as soon as the election kicks off, or at least some of it will (The CBC, Toronto Star, and the Globe and Mail...)
• The Conservatives will win a large minority government, possibly even a small majority, with one or two seats in Quebec.