House Split

Carolyn Parrish won't vote to bring down the government, even thouigh she'd like to Martin the middle finger (her words). Chuck Cadman has also indicaated he wont vote against the government until at least middle of May, so I think the door is open there once the testimony at the inquiry wraps up. And David Kilgour has said he will cote to defeat the government when there is a vote. Two conservatives are quite ill, so with the Bloc they have 151 votes. The Lib-NDP have 150. If the independants split as above, then we have 152-152 and the Speaker breaks the tie in favour of the government. Two caveats:

• Once we get in to May, and Gomery is done, it's far more likely the vote goes against the government
• The NDP are only willing to vote with the Libs on the budget, so once it is passed, they may still vote to defeat them on a non confidence motion.