Saturday

Saturday is a huge day for Canada - the Liberals will choose their leader and serious contender for Prime Minister, and the Alberta Tories will pick their next premier. Both will have a significant impact on policy and politics in our great country over the next decade.

I'm going to stick to the blogs for the AB race, and for the Liberal race, I'll probably watch TV (CTV Newsnet of course). Should be fun.

On the AB race, check out this analysis; I don't agree with it all, but it's well worth reading.

Liberal leadership update

The first vote is Friday night, but the results are basically preodained.  It's the second ballot and on that will be very interesting.

 

Ignatieff's team is highly organized and there are repeated suggestions it has surprises planned — supporters planted in other camps for the first ballot for strategic reasons who will defect to Ignatieff on the second and third ballots to help push him over the top.

 

Now that is cool.

 

Goodale Endorses Bob Rae

And without irony said:

"We must give Canadians something to vote for, not just against and always with two key characteristics from my personal perspective," he said. "First, rock solid fiscal responsibility which enables everything else that we seek to achieve.

Let's look back:

Their [NDP] first budget projected a deficit of almost ten billion dollars, and enacted a series of spending programs to mitigate the worst effects of an economic lag...The government changed its economic focus after 1991, and implemented budget cutbacks to control the province's mounting deficit.

His government also brought in...austerity legislation which reopened collective bargaining agreements with the province's public sector unions. This legislation imposed a wage freeze and introduced what became known as " Rae days", giving civil servants (including teachers, doctors, nurses, etc.) ten days off without pay per year.There are reasons to support Rae, but I'm not sure fiscal responsibility ranks number one.

Interested in a recent poll in advance of Saturday's Liberal leadership race? (Boy is Saturday going to be a serious political junkie night!) The low down is that Iggy is likely first on the first ballot, but only 6% of those polled have him as their second choice. So it's wide open.

more blogs following the AB PC race

www.civitatensis.ca and thepolitic.com are pretty cool, and don't forget albertadecides2006.blogspot.com

 

Oh, and here's how it works on Saturday: On the second ballot, PC voters will rank Jim Dinning, Ted Morton and Ed Stelmach in order of preference.  If nobody walks away with the majority, the last-place finisher's votes will be distributed among the other two, according to preference, to determine a winner.

the numbers

more from the edmonton journal, ctv, and calgary herald

blogs: renewing the one party state, larry johnsrude and a site I wish I had found last night: the invisible hand, which had lots of live results last night. I'll definately be on that site next Saturday

results

It looks like it is Jim Dinning, Ted Morton and Ed Stelmach moving on to next Saturday in the Alberta PC leadership/premier's race.  Morten and Dinning are only 2000 votes apart, so it will be a tight race to the finish.  Memberships can still be purchased.  Next week's vote will determine the winner: party members will vote for their preferred leader but also indicate their second choice.

 

Like I've said before, this race matters to the rest of us because the outcome will affect the rest of the country.  We have to wait one more week to find out what kind of leader Albertans want for the next decade or so.

AB PC Leadership convention

A live blog covering the event on Saturday: Larry Johnsrude of the Edmonton Journal

Is Jim Dinning a Liberal?

The blogs are abuzz...plus he gave the Paul Martin campaign $25,000 with a nice note back in 2002. 

 

The vote is tomorrow.  Membership is $5.  If you live in AB, make sure you sign up and vote.

Inside "Quebec as a Nation"

This is the stuff books get written about.  Here is Chantel Hebert's account of what took place: Harper considering this move since the summer, that he orchastrated a great political move that wont open the constitution, etc.  And here is the Globe and Mail's group think/report on the issue, pretty much the same thing with more detail.

 

All in all this has come off as a huge win for Harper personally and the party generally.  Whatever my thoughts personally on Quebec as a nation within Canada (whatever that actually means), you have to respect a guy who can pull this kind of thing off.  The guy knows how to play the game, that's for sure.

What can be done?

I offer no answers in this post, only dispair via the drudgereport today:

• Female bomber, 68, wounds 3 Israeli troops...
• Suicide bomber's family: We're very proud...
• RUSSIA DELIVERS ROCKETS TO IRAN
• *Sends air defense system...
• **Russian nuclear chief to visit Tehran...
• Bombs Kill 22 After Hell Day in Iraq...
• Shiites Burn Six Sunni Worshippers Alive...

Is the middle east beyond hope? 

Reverse-onus? Couldn't the PR people come up with something better?

It's a great idea - forcing someone with multiple gun offenses to prove why they should receive bail, instead of assuming they should and forcing the prosecutor to prove why they shouldn't.  And it fits well with the quasi three strikes law introduced recently and the increased mandatory minimum sentences.

 

But reverse-onus?  Is it just me or does it sound like it needs a PG13 rating?  Please, a thesaurus!  Anyone?

A blogger predicts a Morton win

He thinks that there is a noticable shift in the air, that the anti-Dinning movement is strong, and that Morton is the kind of unpolished politician that Albertan's like.  It's an interesting analysis and worth reading.

File under: "good politics, questionable policy"

Yesterday, with fanfare and controversy, PM Stephen Harper introduced a motion that recognizes Quebec as a nation within Canada.  They already call their Legislative Assembly the National Assembly, so this isn't groundbreaking or that big of a deal as far as I can tell.  But it does pre-empt the Bloc on a similar motion, and it probably restores the Conservative fortunes in Quebec at least somewhat.  So maybe it's a good move.

Your AB PC leadership update

The Edmonton Journal thinks Ted Morton has momentum. Let me be the first to say he has Mort-mentum.

For more info, I've found these two blogs: albertadecides2006 and anybodybutdinning. Saturday is the day. If no one wins 50% of the votes, the rematch featuring the top 3 contenders is the following Saturday.

Update: a recent poll says Morton is basically tied for the lead, and 25% of members are undecided. But 17000 new members have been signed up and it really is going to come down to who has signed up more new members and who gets their vote out.

Why Flaherty is the right man for the job

As far as he is concerned, Ottawa's money really belongs to the taxpayers — and one way to rein in future government spending is to give surplus cash back to Canadians.  "Government doesn't have any money it hasn't taken from people in the first place," he says.

Tax policy homerun

Apparently the Conservatives are seriously considering income splitting .  What is income splitting?  It's a family friendly policy where by the income of the family unit is split in half and shared equally at tax time.  So a single income family would see a serious reduction in the amount of tax they would pay, and even a two income family where both did not earn the exact same amount would benefit.

 

It would be an outstanding move.  The Conservative Party approved a motion at the convention endorsing the idea overwhelmingly in 2004, but it didn't make it in to the platform that year.

 

This is by far the best tax move they can make for the country in the long and short term - because it encourages and assists the family unit, reversing decades of bad policy.  Politicians are always talking about doing things "for the children".  This would be one of those moves.

AB PC leadership race

I'm in Edmonton, and have it on good authority that internal polling has it: Dinning just over 20% followed by Norris and Oberg at around 17, and Morton just below that.  But the voting system is set up so that everyone but the top three drop off after the first ballot.  Then it's voitng for first, second and third all on one ballot.

 

Check out the Wikipedia entry and this blog covering the race .

Ted Morton - can he win?

He's getting good press, and has set himself up as the guy who can be trusted as a real conservative in the AB PC leadership race.  That first ballot should be interesting.

I hope this is true

Bush draws Vietnam lesson for Iraq: don't quit

Alberta Premier's race - making the grade

The TaxPayers Federation has graded the men who would be premier on tax cuts, transparency and health-care privatization.  Complete results here.

Ted Morton: B
Gary McPherson: B-
Mark Norris: C+
Lyle Oberg: C+
Victor Doerksen: C-
Jim Dinning: D+
Ed Stelmach D+
Dave Hancock: F (no response)

Why do I post this?  Because it matters who is the next premier of Alberta.  Klein may have been a bit of a buffoon by the end, but he was still the best premier in Canada for most of his time in office.  Alberta leads the country in economic growth and fiscal policy (flat income tax, no sales tax).  The province has a boat load of money, incredible infrastructure demands, and basically no plan. 

 

The next leader matters - for Alberta and for Canada.

R.I.P. Milton Friedman

Milton Friedman, the grandmaster of conservative economic theory in the postwar era and a prime force in the movement of nations toward lesser government and greater reliance on free markets and individual responsibility, died today at He was 94 years old.

In Professor Friedman's view, government had the opposite obligation: to keep its hands off the economy, to let the free market do its work. He was a spiritual heir to Adam Smith, the 18th-century founder of the science of economics and proponent of laissez-faire: that government governs best which governs least.

O Happy Day: CRTC overruled

For the first time in a decade the CRTC has been told to smarten up, and rightly so.

The minister said the government prefers to see open competition within the market, leaving companies to fight for business amongst themselves.  ''I am pleased to announce that our government has decided to change the CRTC's decision on VoIP,'' Bernier told the crowd. ''More specifically, we are telling the CRTC to start deregulating 'access independent' VoIP services.''

It may mean that the big companies can sell the service at a loss, and a price war will ensue.  But that's good for who?  Consumers.

The Scream invite riles Liberals

It must be true because the Toronto Star says so.

When being snubbed is a good thing

Today's papers are running big headlines about Harper being "snubbed" by the Chinese. But in this case we should be happy.

The move is an apparent snub by Beijing over the Conservative government's emphasis on human rights...

There have been a number of irritants in Canada-China relations since the Tories took power in January, including the Celil case, the granting of honorary Canadian citizenship to the Tibetan exiled leader Dalai Lama, and accusations by Ottawa of commercial espionage by the Chinese. Tory MPs were also among the most vocal critics of religious persecution in China, in particular the treatment of members of the Falun Gong faith.

UPDATE: Is this much ado about nothing? China says the meeting is back on

FIle under sour grapes

So the Garth Turner thing is much ado about nothing.  He's quiting the Conservative Party, because they wont let him run in the next election.  Big shocker.

Iraq

Stories like this are enough to cause dispair: mass kidnapping based on religious/cultural background, police just standing by. 

 

If the Iraqis don't want law an order, it's doubtful that the west can accomplish what it set out to do.  The underlying assumption for the invasion was that Iraqis wanted to be a free country with a secular democracy.  That assumption is open to question right now.

Rudy is in

Still not sure if I can support him, but Rudy is in for 2008 .  On the plus side, a solid conservative record as mayor NY, on the downside, his messy personal life and his liberal social views.  But he is a top tier candidate and the race should be better because he is in it.

Absolutely, Iran should be allowed to acquire nukes

"The western powers created the Zionist regime in order to expand their control of the area. This regime massacres Palestinians everyday, but since this regime is against nature, we will soon witness its disappearance and destruction ," Ahmadinejad said.

At some point we are going to have to admit that Iran is being very clear about its intentions, and that we ignore them at our peril.  Israel is on record saying they wont tolerate a nuclear Iran - but what can they do?

the world according to garth...and the green party?

So newly minted independent MP Garth Turner is going to make an "announcement " and reveal "distrubing" behavior from the PMO office. Speculation is that he will go over to the Green Party. Is anyone else kind of tired of this guy? It's one thing if he was quietly getting things done for your constituents, but the guy loves the cameras and the publicity. He even seems to have a persecution complex: "who me - what did I do to deserve all this from the big mean Stephen Harper?" But leaving that aside, if he does go Green, and thus confering official party status and giving them an opportunity in future election debates and a higher profile in elections, what does that do to the already fractured political scene in this country? Do the greens take votes from the NDP? The Conservatives? both? Here's their website; policywise, I just don't know where the votes from. Last election they pulled in about 5% - could that double? Ok, maybe not. I'd been led to believe that they were fiscally conservative and envorinmentally responsible, but I think they are a little more "fringe" than I thought. For example, they have 8 statements on toxicity and only 4 on taxes. Check out their platform here, from which I pulled these random policy planks: Green Party MPs will work to

2. Prohibit the use of pesticides for cosmetic purposes. (I didn't make this up) 64. Support pedestrian, cycle and car-sharing infrastructure in towns and cities.

108. Establish a federal program to end "roadside zoos," reduce the number of animals held in captivity, and create clear and enforceable standards for zoos across the country. (I also did not make this one up - the word zoo just jumped out at me) 137. Ban all non-natural pesticides and insecticides by the year 2010 and provide alternatives for farmers.

159. Fund a national housing program to build energy-efficient co-ops and affordable housing units. And my personal favorite: 216. Propose a reform of the WTO, the IMF and the World Bank, placing these institutions under the authority of the UN general assembly, and shift the direction of international trade away from "free trade" to "fair trade" focusing on the global protection of human rights, labour standards, cultural diversity, and ecosystems.

If I could sum up their perspective on a very non scientific (opportunistic skim reading) look at the platform, it would be: heavy handed government regulation of almost every aspect of our lives, personal liberty be damned.

May we never forget

IN FLANDERS FIELDS the poppies blow Between the crosses row on row, That mark our place; and in the sky The larks, still bravely singing, fly Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow, Loved and were loved, and now we lie In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe: To you from failing hands we throw The torch; be yours to hold it high. If ye break faith with us who die We shall not sleep, though poppies grow In Flanders fields.

The Scream is coming

This made me smile: Howard Dean is coming to Canada.  To give a keynote at the Liberal convention.  I kid you not.  Paul Wells makes it funnier.

 

Quick list: Policy items where Howard Dean is to the Right of the Liberal Party

• gay marriage
• healthcare
• gun control
• taxes
• military spending

I kid you not.  Dean could never endorse gay marriage (civil unions, check), no Democrat would propose exactly our system (something similar perhaps, but not compulsary, not publically delivered, just publically paid for), no Democrat would dream of making everyone register hunting rifles or banning all hand guns (that would play in, uh, no state in the union), no Democrat could openly endorse the taxation rates we pay here, and no Democrat could propose neutering the US military as we have here.

 

It should be a great speech. 

Shocker: McCain is in for 2008

ABC claims an exclusive on something everyone already knows. But he's setting up staff, office space, etc. Hugh Hewitt (and Rush Limbaugh for that matter) thinks McCain is to blame for losing the Senate and that his presidential campaign is over because of it. I agree he is partly to blame (Bill Frist just as much in my mind), but I also think he's well positioned to make a run.

But he could split the Republican Party in half: he is way to the left of the party and the base on immigration, and issue that is volatile enough within the party, and he is too willing to court his own base (the media, by his own admission). Very, very few conservatives like him, although I suppose most could hold their nose if he was the nominee.

(Quick side note: a life long conservative Republican called in the the Hugh Hewitt show yesterday and said they would vote for Hillary! over McCain in 2008. If that sentiment is widespread, look out.)

So the 2008 race is McCain, Giuliani, and Romney. Is there a serious 4th option?

The British Front

MI 5 is tracking around 30 different terrorist plots involving 200 cells and 1600 people.

"It is the youth who are being actively targeted, groomed, radicalized and set on a path that frighteningly quickly could end in their involvement in mass murder of their fellow U.K. citizens,'' she said. "Young teenagers are being groomed to be suicide bombers."

Election redux

Another outstanding analysis:

This is not realignment. As has been the case for decades, American politics continues to be fought between the 40-yard lines. The Europeans fight goal line to goal line, from socialist left to the ultranationalist right. On the American political spectrum, these extremes are negligible. American elections are fought on much narrower ideological grounds. In this election, the Democrats carried the ball from their own 45-yard line to the Republican 45-yard line...

The result is that both parties have moved to the right. The Republicans have shed the last vestiges of their centrist past, the Rockefeller Republican. And the Democrats have widened their tent to bring in a new crop of blue-dog conservatives.

Iraq, summarized

Via Marturia.net, this article is piercing and true :

 

My 21st birthday happened to coincide with the final evacuation of Saigon. From my modest experience on the ground in that country, I knew what was coming next. The boat people were no surprise to me. I think that was the day I fully realized, in adult terms, that evil often prevails in this world. So this is nothing new.

The fate that will befall all those millions of courageous Iraqis, showing the dye on their fingers after they had voted -- in defiance of all the terror threats -- will not come as a surprise to me, either. They are being sold out, as the Vietnamese were before them. But the consequences of abandoning Iraq will come home to the United States and the West, in a way Vietnam never touched us.

 

Bush has two years to make it right.

 

Al Queda celebrates

For those that think our enemies weren't watching the US Midterms:

 

The Democrats' victory in Tuesday's Congressional elections was a move in the right direction, the speaker said. Outgoing US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had stepped down to flee the Iraqi battlefield, "I tell the lame duck (US administration) do not rush to escape as did your defence minister. "The American people have taken a step in the right path to come out of their predicament... they voted for a level of reason," the voice said.

 

Where was the attack ad: "Our enemies want the Democrats to win.  Why is that?".   See also the link to the Hezbollah statement.  A democratic victory is their victory, and a Republican defeat is cause for celebration.  I guess Americans gave Al Queda and its allies what they wanted.

Rumsfeld roundup

I am a Donald Rumsfeld fan. I have no shame or embarassment in saying it. I think he was an outstanding choice, which is not to say he is perfect. His replacement now is mistimed and disloyal.

From a political and practical perspective, he should have resigned right after Bush's win in 2004. To have all of those military papers release an editorial on the weekend before the election saying the military had lost faith in him was devastating.

Apparently Bush has been thinking about replacing him for months, so it begs the question, why not in August? Why not show that you are listening, willing to be flexible, etc? How many seats could have been saved? The "stay the course" mantra and the impression that Bush was inflexible were likely responsible for a couple of points in each race where a conservative Democrat won. It's not inconceivable that the Senate could still belong to the Rs if Rummy had been let go a couple of months ago. And don't get me started on candidate recruitment.

A good round up of his tenure as SecDef can be found at NRO, with additional insight in the Corner. He will be remembered as a great public servant and a great leader, now tainted with this election loss, having overstayed his time.

We know he offered his resignation twice to Bush before 2004, so responsibility for this election and for Rumsfeld's end lies squarly with the man in the oval office. As it should.

polling works, apparently

So I hearby publically proclaim that I will no longer claim that polling in the modern age doesn't work. I have for the last couple of elections, and I've been wrong. Think polling doesn't work? Check this out or this.

But disagreeing with myself already, this polling is just shameful. Here's a shocker, right after the Cs broke their trusts promise and billions have been lost in the market, Canadians are (wait for it) unhappy. No kidding. But it's still C31-L28-N18. And the Ls have no leader. Wait until they do...

From a bad to disaster

So the Senate is officially Democratic.  Nov 7 has officially gone from bad to disaster.  If there are any Supreme Court vacancies in the next two years Bush and the nation are in real trouble.  What kind of nominees can he get through this new Senate? 

 

The only analysis here is that the Republicans blew it.  A good economy and a safe 5 years since 9/11 weren't enough.

 

Yes the media was against them (by one study the positive news stories were 10-1 for Democrats), and yes the insurgents turned up the heat in Iraq ahead of elections.

 

But the GOP did nothing substantial in the Senate, and there was scandal and complacency in the House where just like the Senate they loved spending and they loved incumbency.

 

W lost his way in Iraq which turned out to be one of the single biggest political issue for Americans.  Now Rumsfeld has paid the price, but quite frankly he should have been replaced right after the 2004 elections. 

 

The Rs are going to have work really, really hard to rehabilitate their image and punish Democrats.  The 2008 field is narrowing: Allen is out, Frist is out, so the three front runners are Giuliani, McCain, and Romney.  If Giuliani can get it together on social issues and espcially on SC nominiees he is my pick, then Romney.  Maybe Romney is number one, I don't know.  I don't think I can stomach McCain, and I bet the base can't either.

Rumsfeld Resigns

And is replaced by Robert Gates

this about sums it up

World sees Democrat gains as rejection of Bush

The morning after the night before

The Democrats have won the House, Nancy Pelosi is Speaker.  The Senate is likely going to go the Democrats as well, but no winners have been called in Virginia or Montana.  Missouri went south over night.  Recount is likely in VA, but unlikely in MT

 

There is no other way to describe this than awful.  It's not a disaster, but it's close.  As far as I can tell the Rs didn't win anything really close, and no D incumbant lost.

 

To put it in perspective, for a sixth year midterm this is relatively normal. But so what?  This is what normally happens in the cycle - but normal isn't good enough in a time of war or for what was supposed to be a vaunted Republican political machine.  Voters basically said "get out of Iraq".

 

At least that's the message everyone has heard: take Hezbollah and Michael  Moore for example.

 

More analysis:

• RealClearPolitics - first headline: the bush presidency is over
• Hewitt - lots of bad, some good; McCain is to blame.
• Mark Steyn -  congrats to the Democrats, our side lost
• David Frum - some democrats are worse than others

Here's the bottom line: Bush has lost serious political capital and will have to find ways to compromise while still prosecuting the war.  Americans rejected the modern Republican party - soft on spending, soft on corruption, lost in Iraq, 

 

Americans did, however, embrace the center and the traditional definition of marriage.  And Arnold won in California.  It's not all bad. 

 

But it's pretty bad.

until tomorrow

still hoping the senate will be ok...

Senate in doubt

The Virginia race is going to go to recount, and could be lost. The Montana race looks gone. Missouri could go either way. Ugly.

On the upside for the House, there is this post from the Corner:

Dem Wins [Larry Kudlow] Look at blue dog conservative Dem victories, and look at Northeast liberal GOP defeats. The changeover in the House may well be a conservative victory, not a liberal one. Blue dogs are rabid budget balancers. At tomorrow's news conference, President Bush should reach out to them, and to Republican base, with a spending limitation pay-as-you go proposal that gets to a balanced budget in a couple of years. Any spending increases (defense) must be offset with spending cuts (domestic pork). A spending limit paygo was used effectively by the Gingrich Congresses between 1995 and 1998, the high tide of their limited government period. And, this approach will head off a revenue paygo advocated by Pelosi, Spratt and Rangel that would lead to tax hikes.Posted at 12:11 AM And Arnold won in California.

CNN projects Dems win house

Booo. I'm also checking the Corner for more election news...

not looking good

Almost all of the results tonight are disappointing. When Leiberman (I) beating Lamont (D) is the best news so far, you know things aren't going your way...

Electionpoolooza

Here's where I'll be tonight. I can only watch CNN since I can't get Fox News.

• Drudge - of course
• Hugh Hewitt - this is the blog you want to watch for inside stuff.
• ABC News - for their pretty graphics

Surprise! the exit polls are bad news for the Rs. Don't give it a moment's consideration. It's going to be a long night. Stay with Hewitt for the latest.

Breaking news

The Republicans are headed for a disaster, etc, etc.

 

The news is going to look bad in the papers and newscasts Tuesday morning - the Rs are going down, etc.  I'm just getting that out of the way. 

 

On that note I listened to CBC radio for the last time tonight - they tried to quote Novak as saying that the Rs are "trembling" or something like that.  The report was so wrong and biased it made me laugh out loud.  (Novak actually improved his outlook in his most recent newsletter and thinks the Rs will keep the Senate and narrowly lose the House).  I have had enough of CBC's blatent bias thinly disguised as objective Canadian journalism. 

 

Now I hardly ever listen to CBC news and the only thing I ever watch is Rick Mercer on the TV network because I hate the idea of state TV or radio.  But today I vow to never listen to CBC radio again.  I'm taking it off my stored stations, both AM and FM.

 

But I'm still going to watch Mercer. 

 

Down with the CBC.

Pastors are human

Much ado has been made about the former head of the National Evangelical Association and his admission (really an outing timed to maximize political effect) that he struggles with sexual sin.  The interest is two fold: the story has excited the anti-Christian left because it smells the blood of a hypocrite, which is quite frankly what it suspects every prominent Christian to be.  The second is the political angle as pundits debate how the revelation will effect the mid term elections tomorrow.

 

Clearly the standard for Christians in leadership is higher than it is for others, and this is very high profile blow.  No one is excusing his actions or justifying them.  His congregations seems to be handling it with maturity.

 

But the reaction and coverage is somewhat dishonest: we know that Christian leaders are sinners, so no one should feign surprise that this particular man is sinful.  The authority pastors claim is not sinlessness or perfection, rather a calling from God.  Pastors are sinners and there is no contradiction there - every Christian is a sinner and each of us will at some point condemn something that we ourselves have done. 

 

This is not hypocisy, but the struggle to overcome our sinful nature - something we cannot do with out Christ.

Breaking News: Canada benefits from free trade

It's a sad state of affairs when we are still having this debate with the economically illiterate, but yet another report confirms that <shocker> Free Trade Has Been Good for our Economy </shocker>.  For some the evidence will never be enough, and I realize that.  But please, can we move on?

 

"Canadians have prospered...Few countries have provided as shining an example of how to adapt and prosper in a post-freer trade world than Canada."

 

Before Canada signed on to the Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement in 1988 and the North American free-trade agreement in 1993, critics charged that Canadian production would move south, exports would evaporate, jobs would dry up, foreign investment in Canada would deteriorate, the tax base would shrink, and the restructuring would force the country into a painful and long-term funk.

The adjustment was not without pain, but the end result, after 18 years of free trade, has made the criticisms look frivolous...Exports have soared and foreign direct investment in Canada has risen substantially. Government coffers are full to overflowing, and Canada's fiscal situation is the envy of many a rich country. And while many of Canada's top companies have been bought by foreigners, often American, Canadian companies have been just as busy buying up U.S. firms, the study says.

SH gets the gallows

The former dictator of Iraq has been convicted of mass murder, and will die in the gallows pending appeal.

Shiites and Kurds, who had been tormented and killed in the tens of thousands under Saddam's iron rule, erupted in celebration

 

Mark Steyn hosting the Hugh Hewitt Show

Mark Steyn hosted a 3 hour radio program on Friday, and it was pretty interesting.  Here are the first, second and third hours.  He's both funny and cutting in his perceptiveness.  i highly recommend a listen if you have the time. 

 

Of course he is also promoting his new book America Alone, which I am half way through - most of the time I don't know whether to laugh or cry...if he is right the future for much of the world is pretty bleak, and the conflict between the west and radical islam is only just beginning. 

 

Question: is it a universal truth that for a solution to a complex problem to be pursued by the majority the problem must get worse before it gets better?

Dion: everyone's second choice

Recent polling shows that the anti-Ignatief candidate could be Stephane Dion:

 

The current front-runner, Michael Ignatieff, who leads on everything from first-ballot support to fundraising, appears the candidate most likely to stall. Dion is the leadership candidate most often picked when delegates are asked who their second choice is, and again when they are asked their third choice. Ignatieff, on the other hand, trails the other three top contenders in both categories.

 

It seems to me that the work that Iggy camp needs to do right now is on that second choice category.  They have to soften up some of these folks, and try to get some momentum when the losers start dropping off on the first couple ballots.  I was talking recently to a Liberal Youth delegate supporting Brison, and she said only one candidate drops out after each ballot.  That makes at least 8 ballots, so stay tuned for a long night...

 

The other interesting numbers are these:

 

Asked if there is "any candidate you would definitely NOT like to see win...23 per cent identified Ignatieff (Etobicoke-Lakeshore) and 18 per cent named Bob Rae, former NDP premier of Ontario. Gerard Kennedy, who resigned as Ontario education minister last spring, scored the lowest at 2 per cent.

 

Wow.  Maybe I was wrong picking Rae as the anti-Iggy candidate.  Kennedy or Dion seem to have more favourable numbers right now.  But this is politics, and lots can change in a short time.  Stay tuned!

corruption at the UN?

Who knew?  The investigation is 'at full throttle' apparently, with indictments already and more to come. 

 

Faster, please.

Income trust round up

Apparently BCE forced the government's hand , and did so with its eyes open. They felt they had no option, though, with the Telus decision to convert, so here we are. Andrew Coyne says it's good policy, but bad politics:

It's got to be some sort of trick -- some cunning Conservative dodge, some deeply Roveian sleight of hand, in which what looks to the untrained eye like political suicide is revealed in the end to have been a political master stroke. Consider: At one blow, by suddenly reversing course and imposing a tax on income trusts, the Conservatives have infuriated old age pensioners, seriously put out Bay Street and destroyed $25-billion in wealth. Oh, and flat-out broken an explicit campaign promise from the last election -- just in time for the next. Confound your devilry, Jim Flaherty! It's so stupid, it's brilliant!

And Terance Corcoran argues that most Canadians will come around and see that this is the right thing to do. Hopefully the income splitting provisions for seniors will be a precursor to having income splitting for the rest of us.

Flaherty acted to end what sensible people knew was a growing problem: You cannot build and maintain a national corporation-based economic system on a tax mistake that had the effect of wrecking the underlying corporate structure. A standard corporation paid income tax at 46% on profits, directly as a corporation and indirectly through shareholders. Converted to an income trust, the corporate tax became almost zero when paid into a pension fund or RRSP. Foreign investors paid 15%...The Flaherty fix puts an end to the tax gimmick. No gimmick, no trusts. All businesses will now pay the same corporate tax rates, regardless of their structure.

I agree that this is ugly.

It breaks a very, very clear promise.

It's politically very damaging.

It's temporarily destroyed billions in wealth.

But at the end of the day, it is the right move in long term. If they had left it as is, it would have only got worse and been a more painful problem for a future government and all investors. Now the playing field is level, and they can move on personal and corporate rates.

Maybe they could have handled it better (how? -ed). But it's better than the last time something on trusts was announced, and over time hopefully most investors can forgive them. And it is done now, so I guess we just have to deal with it.

Update: here's the insider tale from CTV