Ipsos poll

Liberals: 27%, -10 (37) Conservatives: 30%, +4 (26) NDP: 19%, +2 (17) Bloc: 12%, +2 (10) Greens: 7%, 0 (7) There is lots more information in the article, including regional breakdown. But does this poll make any sense? Compared to the Ekos poll, I don't think so. Copmparing Conservative vs. Liberal numbers, there is a big difference.

	Ekos	Ispsos
Nationally	36-25	30-27
Ontario	40-33	32-34
AB	70-10	54-21

I think we need to take these numbers with a big grain of salt, and let things settle out a little bit. Each poll seems to measure conservative support differently - the only thing we can know for sure is that the Liberal support is collapsing. And if anyone believes the Grits are at 21 in Alberta I have a bridge to sell them.

So expect an election in June, unless the Tories have the guts to wait for the fall. I'm betting on the spring.

Update: for what it's worth, my stats wizard buddy in Calgary has averaged both polls, and averaged the national and regional numbers to come up with the following seat distribution:

C 124 L 75 N 43 B 65