New poll

Good news in the latest poll.  P rojects to: C: 112  L: 100 NDP: 33  G: 0 IND: 1 BQ: 62  (Thanks to Mick for the projections and the tip.)

Funny headline, sensible policy

Sharp Objects May Be Allowed on Planes

 

Department officials are said to be more concerned about preventing suicide bomb attacks at airports. Officials want screeners to focus more on finding things that can explode rather than things that are sharp.

 

A good move, long overdue.  Nail clippers are safe once again.

 

It's official: election January 23, 2006

It'll be a two part campaign of course - before and after Christmas - and it should be...feisty. Looks like the Liberals are going to plug the economic record heavily. Polls:

• CBC/ENVIRONICS: Lib 35%, Con 30%, NDP 20%...
• CTV/GLOBE & MAIL POLL: Lib 35%, Con 29%, NDP 17%...
• Update: a new poll has things 31-31-18

Columns:

• Tories take aim at Belinda
• Kinsella thinks it will be a Tory minority (link isn't permanent)
• David Frum gives the Conservatives some ideas

Must read blog

• Paul Wells

Update: Harper has decided to stir things up right away, vowing a free vote on marriage. Is that even possible now? And how does it help the Cs in Ontario? I'm all for free votes, but wont the media just play it up?

Government falls

As expected...The non-confidence motion, introduced by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and seconded by NDP Leader Jack Layton, passed by a 171-133 margin and ended weeks of bitter political manoeuvring by all parties.

 

Martin will call the election tomorrow, likely for January 23.  Wow - that's a long campaign.  The Liberal must think that they can out campaign and outlast the Conservatives and NDP.  They'll try to weather the storm on corruption before Christmas, and then try to change the story in the new year...

 

New poll here: Libs 36 Cons 31 NDP 16 Bloc 14 Undecided 17 (Very interesting breakdown by region, age, and gender)

 

History lesson

From the Chantal Hebert Toronto Star no less  - covers a lot of ground, and is well worth reading.

Election fever

New Polls (via Neale News)

• EKOS/TORONTO STAR POLL: Liberals 38%, Conservatives 29%, NDP 16%...
• IPSOS-REID POLL: Liberals 34%, Conservatives 30%, NDP 16%...

How not to run a campaign

Mixing my first-hand observations of the campaign with confidential input from several party strategists has produced a Christmas list of the naughtiest 2004 no-nos the Conservatives dare not repeat if they ever hope to be a government.

Voter backlash over spending?

The election campaign that begins next week will be a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives thanks to deep public cynicism over how Prime Minister Paul Martin's government has resorted to a massive spending spree to attract votes, a major new survey has found.

The confidence vote and beginning of the campaign will be Monday...

Iraq must read

This article is written by a Marine, with details on which weapons and strategy work, and which don't. Lots of great stuff from someone who's there and fighting.

It is widely viewed that Zarqawi's use of suicide bombers, en masse, against the civilian population was a serious tactical mistake. Many Iraqis were galvanized and the caliber of recruits in the Army and the police forces went up, along with their motivation. It also led to an exponential increase in good intelligence because the Iraqis are sick of the insurgent attacks against civilians. The Kurds are solidly pro-American and fearless fighters.

According to [name redacted], morale among our guys is very high. They not only believe they are winning, but that they are winning decisively. They are stunned and dismayed by what they see in the American press, whom they almost universally view as against them. The embedded reporters are despised and distrusted. They are inflicting casualties at a rate of 20-1 and then see s*** like "Are we losing in Iraq?" on television and the print media.

For the most part, they are satisfied with their equipment, food and leadership. Bottom line, though, and they all say this: There are not enough guys there to drive the final stake through the heart of the insurgency, primarily because there aren't enough troops in-theater to shut down the borders with Iran and Syria. The Iranians and the Syrians just cannot stand the thought of Iraq being an American ally -- with, of course, permanent U.S. bases there.

Getting it right

It's rare, but it does happen.  Sure it takes an election for the Liberals to cut taxes and make good economic decisions, but it's something.  Maybe we need elections every two years...

The Canadian stock market hit its highest level in more than five years Thursday, led by dividend-paying stocks, after Ottawa said it will level the playing field with income trusts by cutting taxes on corporate dividends. Income trusts also soared....

"In a fit of wonderful, capitalist common sense, the government has gone and done the far better thing and has levelled the field by bringing the taxes on all other dividend income down," said Dennis Gartman, author of the popular Gartman Newsletter.

Pre-election spending...$9B and counting

So we are having an election. Looks like the non confidence motion will be introduced this week, so the obvious response is...spending announcements! $9B in new spending, and that's only the beginning. Look for around $20 billion in new spending announcements over the next while, not to mentioned the number of new initiatives that will be reannounced. No - I'm not cynical at all. Voters can legitimately ask - where you been all my life?

So what will the NDP and Conservatives counter with? The NDP will vow to take recind the corporate tax cuts, and outspend everyone on housing, the environment, and other social programs. The Conservatives will try to attract interest with a better tax cut platform, marginally less spending, getting rid of the gun registry, etc.

Probable election date is January 16 or 23, 2006.

Update: King Ralph lends a helping hand , in his usual, candid way...MacKay responds: bring on the duct tape

Update 2: Yup, $20B

NR analysis on Sharon's move

Imagine if George W. Bush — elected president of the United States with overwhelming conservative Republican support — suddenly woke up one morning, called a press conference, and announced, "I believe Hillary Clinton was right about how to reform health care, and I hereby intend to implement her plan to nationalize America's health-care system."

Imagine then that a furious GOP demanded that President Bush at the very least hold a referendum within the party to decide whether embracing HillaryCare was really a good idea, and abide by its results. Now imagine that having lost that referendum decisively, and choosing to ignore the results, President Bush now asked Dick Cheney to step down and asked Hillary to serve as his vice president for the sake of "national unity."

Finally, imagine that having begun to implement HillaryCare and thus alienating most of the GOP, President Bush decided to bolt the party that nominated and elected him and create his own "centrist" party.

Now welcome to Israel.

 

Election motion passes...

But it's non binding.

The motion – which was introduced by NDP Leader Jack Layton and supported by the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois – passed by a vote of 167-129 on Monday night...

Layton said he felt compelled to introduce the motion because an election was already looming and he didn't see any point in letting Liberal cabinet ministers use the holiday break to race around the country making big-ticket spending promises at the taxpayers' expense...

"Conservative Leader Stephen Harper said the Liberals' refusal to respect Monday's vote meant he would proceed with a plan to introduce a binding no-confidence motion on Thursday.

election news roundup

If you want to know what's going on in Canadian politics, this is the place to start.  Solid roundup of stories and insight, worth checking out daily.

 

The buzz is that there will be a defeat of the government in the next week or so, possibly self inflicted.  Or the Liberals might prorogue parliament on their own.  Stay tuned...

Political upheaval in Israel

Israel PM Ariel Sharon has left the party he helped found and form a new center party.  He hopes to bring moderates from both Likud and Labour with him, in order to re-balance Israeli politics and proceed with peace negotiations (if they can be called that) with the Palestinians.  Netanyahu is the leading candidate to replace Sharon as leader of Likud.  Should be interesting to watch.

Too much preschool can be too much

Being in preschool for more than six hours a day can be damaging to a young child's social and emotional development compared to children who stay home with their parents, researchers at the University of California-Berkeley, and Stanford University have concluded...

On average, the report found that the earlier children enter preschool, the slower their pace of social development, while cognitive skills are stronger when children are first enrolled between the ages of two and three.

 

Kyoto - what's it good for?

Better question - is anyone going to meet the targets?    Via Yahoo:  Canada, Japan, Europe failing on Kyoto Protocol targets: UN report

 

This lends a lot of weight to the idea that Kyoto's real goal all along was to try and limit the US economic growth, and never about environmental idealism.  Not to mention that even if Kyoto was fully implemented, and China and India not included, the net benefit would be less than one degree difference in "global warming" - maybe.  Perhaps that's too low a rate of return on hundred's of thousands of jobs and economic stagnation...

Horrific Oppression in North Korea

When will the suffering of North Korea's people come to an end?  A recent report details and confirms what we have known for years: North Korea is the worst place on earth, run by evil mad men holding the people in mortal fear.

 

But what to do?  The US cannot go it alone, nor is an invasion anything but the very, very last option.  The west must lean on China, South Korea and Japan to take a stronger role in the negotiations.  But progress must be made.  Millions are suffering under the most repressive and backward regime on the planet, and there is little or no hope in sight.

Must reads

• Krauthammer on the revolution in France
• Hitchens on Iraq
• Steyn on Europe's future

Perspective

Here's something worth remembering:

 

Since the beginning of the year, the Liberals have announced nearly $100 billion in new spending over the next five years. Now, with an election in sight, they claim to be making $30 billion in tax cuts over the same period, but the bulk of that (more than 40%) won't kick in until the last two years, if it kicks in at all.

One-hundred billion in spending, $30 billion in tax cuts and somehow that is supposed to impress us into reelecting Grits.

Since they balanced the budget in 1998, the Liberals have taken $500 billion -- half a trillion dollars -- out of the economy in extra taxes, above and beyond what they needed to keep spending at 1998 levels. Now they are promising to give back $30 billion (6%) and we are all supposed to believe the Libs have done us a favour.

Election fever in Canada

It's a strange sight, ne'er to be repeated, but the 3 opposition parties are united against the Liberals over when to call an election. They want a February election, but government says no way. Which means we could, and it's only a possibility here, have a non confidence motion and a defeat of the government this week, leading to...a December election! Yipee.

It's happened before, in 1979, when that great political strategist Joe Clark managed to lose a confidence motion on the budget and opened the door for the return of Pierre Trudeau. Thanks again Joe.

My feeling is that an election now wont yield substantially different results unless a) the Liberals screw up the campaign b) the conservatives learn to campaign well for the whole 4 weeks or c) the media plays it fair d) Ontario decides it's had enough of the Liberals. I put the possibility at any of those happening at under 25%.

So my fearless predection is another Liberal minitory government...

Update: here's Goodale's mini budget/economic update (3rd budget this year, according to Monte Solberg's blog offering tax cuts (now and way off in the future) and increased spending...

We remember

"To you from failing hands we throw The torch; be yours to hold it high. If ye break faith with us who die We shall not sleep, though poppies grow In Flanders fields."

[Excerpt from "In Flanders Fields" by Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, Canadian Army]

And a Mark Steyn column worth reading on war and rememberance

Top Canadian Blog

I've said it before, but it is worth repeating.  Lorne Gunter's "As I Please" blog is exceptional.  This post on election law, especially, but also the ones on election timing and custody.  If you have a few minutes...

A night to forget

What a terrible day yesterday.  NJ and VA elected democratic governors.  Not a single initiative passed in CA, and two weren't close.  Arnold has his work cut out for him now, and he's been wounded.  The strength of public sector unions is not something to be trifled with...

 

Free trade in the Americas

It's making progress - with all but Venezuela on board.  It's a long, negotiated process, but it's coming.  And good thing too - free trade benefits everyone involved.  Just look at how Mexico's economy has grown since 1994 (NAFTA).

New poll

Libs 35 Cons 28  NDP 16

 

And Jack Layton says he's not willing to support the government anymore.  But the other parties are not too enthusiastic at this point.

 

House of Commons breaks down like this right now:

 

Australia foils major attack

One of the challenging aspects of the war on terror is that the successes get so little coverage, while the failures are huge.  Imagine what our world would be like if the CIA and FBI had done their jobs prior to 9/11...

 

In any event, it looks like Australia has foiled a major terrorist attack.  Good news, under reported.

Cruise line attack

Who knew there were still pirates at sea?  Apparently cruise lines traveling off the coast of Africa were prepared...

 

The crew of a luxury cruise ship used a sonic weapon that blasts earsplitting noise in a directed beam while being attacked by a gang of pirates off Africa this weekend, the cruise line said Monday.

The Seabourn Spirit had a Long Range Acoustic Device, or LRAD, installed as a part of its defense systems, said Bruce Good, a spokesman for Miami-based Seabourn Cruise Line. The Spirit was about 100 miles off Somalia when pirates fired rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns as they tried to get onboard.

The subsidiary of Carnival Corp. was investigating whether the weapon was successful in warding off the pirates, he said. The ship's captain also changed its course, shifted into high speed and headed out into the open sea to elude the pirates, who were in two small boats, he said.

Gomery poll

Libs 31, Cons 30, NDP 19

Violence in Paris

There have been violent riots in Paris over the last seven nights, and it seems to be primarily between muslim youth and police.  And as David Frum points out, and Marc Steyn has been saying for years, Muslim integration in to European society is not going so well...and there has been racial violence in Britain between blacks and asians over the alleged rape of a young women...

 

Oh, to be European...

 

 

Do as I say, not as I do

New book out, with lots of fascinating tidbits:

• Michael Moore owns halliburton stock
• Nancy Pelosi proclaims her support for unions, yet the luxury resort, the vineyard and the restaurants she partly owns are strictly non-union.
• Noam Chomsky's entire academic careerhas been subsidized by the U.S. military (what were they thinking?)
• Barbra Streisand she drives an SUV, lives in a mansion and has a $22,000 annual water bill. In the past, she has driven to appointments in Beverly Hills in a motor home because of her aversion to using public bathrooms.
• Ralph Nader lives in fancy homes registered in the names of his siblings