Ignatief is done

I have no hard evidence to support my hunch, but I'm convinced that the Liberal leadership front runner is done.  He did tremendous damage to himself with the Qana war crime comment, and then it got worse the more he tried to explain it.  Now he is going to Israel, guaranteeing that the comment, and more importantly his political flip flop on the issue, will be covered even more extensively over the next couple of weeks.

 

He may not lose much more support among his delegate over it, but the gaffe (both his statement and how he's handling reaction to it) is likely to galvanize the "anyone but Iggy" movement.  There is going to be one anyway, because Ignatief is further right than most Liberals anyway, but this comment shows that he is just not very polished or experienced as a politician. 

 

Who benefits?  Whoever finishes number 2 after the first ballot.  If that's Bob Rae, then look for Liberals who want a more left wing guy anyway (Kennedy and Drydon supporters) to jump right away.  I have now idea where Dion supports go, but I can't see him winning or his support going wholesale to Ignatief, so look for it to be a showdown between Iggy and Rae, and Rae to win. 

 

There - my prediction is in.  Harper vs. Rae in 2007.